Important Day

Tomorrow, April 9th, Parliamentary General Election will be held in Indonesia and Indonesia's embassies abroad.

I hope that something will be running well in peace. This election is important to strengten democracy in Indonesia. Its results will give us more clear picture of the candidates in next presidential election.

After election, improving economy and combating corruption will be two crucial major tasks to lawmakers in the parliament and officials in the new administration.

German as A Model, Globalization Can't be Stopped

Der Spiegel interviewed Economist Joseph Stiglizt to know in depth crisis that world is facing now. He suggests that when capitalism fails, state economy is not an alternative. "communism doesn't work as economic system", Mr. Joseph Stiglizt said. German social model then is alternative.

This interview is very interesting.

Debt, Unemployment, Inflation

This is very sharp opinion on the other picture of recent G20 summit in London. It sounds more honest to not use : Stability, Growt, Jobs as slogan of the summit but: Debt, Unemployment, Inflation, says the opinion.

I quote part of opinion showing how terrible situation is America facing rightnow:

"The addiction to new cash injections was chronic. The US had allowed itself to sink into an abject lifestyle. It sold more and more billions in new government bonds in order to preserve the appearance of a prosperous nation. To make matters worse, private households copied the example of the state. The average American now lives from hand to mouth and has 15 credit cards. The savings rate is almost zero. At the end of the Bush era, 75 percent of global savings were flowing into the US.

The president and the head of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, knew about the problem very well. Perhaps the Americans even knew just how irresponsible their actions were -- at any rate, they did everything they could to hide them from the world. Since 2006, figures for the money supply -- in other words, the total number of dollars in circulation -- have no longer been published in the US. As a result, a statistic which is regarded by the European Central Bank as a key indicator is now treated as a state secret in the US.".

Read the full of opinion here

Waiting for Real Candidates to Presidential Election

Legislative General Election will be held in next April 9th in Indonesia. Candidates for presidential general election in next July much depend on result of this legislative general election. Candidate for presidency must be supported by party (or parties) that reach at least 25 pecent of people votes in the poll.

So that, there is still no real candidates of president and vice president to race for next presidential election. The big names in the public sphere are: Megawati Soekarnoputri (former president), Susilo Bambang Yudoyono (incumbent President) and Jusuf Kalla (incumbent Vice President). Their parties (with or without coalition) are predicted gain enough votes to bring them to the presidential election.

The speculation is bigger when it relates to vice president candidates. Some possibilites are endorsed by Media, but no one of them is fixed. We must wait untill the days after April 9th then, to make sure the couples who will fight in next presidential election.

Vice President's Blog

I am impressed with Mr. Jusuf Kalla, Indonesian Vice President's Blog. It is funny, smart, good written in Bahasa and direct approach to the issues that most Indonesian people care about.

Mr. Jusuf Kalla is in his way to presidential candidacy of his party to the presidential general election next July. His blog is one of his way to be in touch with the people.

I don't know how much will the blog increase his electibility. But the thing should be appreciated is his will to write daily on public issues and communicating personally with the people.

A Last Chance for Two States Solution

Roger Cohen, in NY Times, writes about proposal on Mideast peace to President Obama that signed by 10 former senior officials in US.

There are four core items in the proposal:

"The first is clear U.S. endorsement of a two-state solution based on the lines of June 4, 1967, with minor, reciprocal, agreed land swaps where necessary. That means removing all West Bank settlements except in some heavily populated areas abutting Jerusalem — and, of course, halting the unacceptable ongoing construction of new ones.

The second is establishing Jerusalem as home to the Israeli and Palestinian capitals. Jewish neighborhoods would be under Israeli sovereignty and Arab neighborhoods under Palestinian sovereignty, with special arrangements for the Old City providing unimpeded access to holy sites for all communities.

The third is major financial compensation and resettlement assistance in a Palestinian state for refugees, coupled with some formal Israeli acknowledgment of responsibility for the problem, but no generalized right of return.

The fourth is the creation of an American-led, U.N.-mandated multinational force for a transitional period of up to 15 years leading to full Palestinian control of their security".

They call the proposal as "a last chance for a two-state Israel-Palestine agreement.”

It sounds realistic for President Obama if his Administration gives serious efforts to mediate lasting peace between Palestine and Israel.

Prof. Juan Cole on Engaging The Muslim World

Prof. Juan Cole lauched his new book: "Engaging The Muslim World". He appeared in Asia Soceity to talk about it.

"Beginning with a detailed slide presentation, Cole argued that the Muslim world, far from being a single monolithic entity, is actually far more heterogeneous than most people in the West (particularly Americans) commonly suppose. Cole went on to explain how changing demographics and patterns of energy consumption mean that America's relationship with the countries in question will only become more important further into the 21st century. In the end, he concluded, "dialogue, compromise, and engagement" will be crucial for the US to maintain (and in some cases establish) better relations with the Islamic world.", wrote Asia Soceity.

Watch full presentation here.

Decreasing Tension

Political tension on international affairs seems to be decrease in near future. Yesterday, Riyad of Saudi Arabia hosted summit of four heads of states: Saudi Arabia, Suriah, Egypt and Kuwait. They worked to prepare real reconcilation among arab countries in dealing with their common interest.

Meanwhile, US in its way to talk with Suriah and Iran: two countries that often referred as resistance forces against US and its allies hegemony. US Secretary of State, Mrs. Hillary Clinton recently visited China to strengthen cooperations between the two countries. She also met Russia Foreign Minister, Mr. Sergey Lavrov to talk about key issues on missile defence and nuclear arm reduction.

I think that the more diplomatic ways are used to look for solution in hot issues of international affairs the more beneficial out put can be reached in term of peace and reducting conflicts.

Instable Sudan: Justice or Peace?

ICC (International Criminal Court) issued warrant to arrest President of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir in suspection of war crime and crime againts humanity in Darfur, but Mr. President defies. These days, He is in rally to gain people of Sudan support against the warrant in all over Sudan.

300.000 people have been killed in Darfur. 2.7 million people are now displaced. Their basic needs to food, water and medicines are much supplied by international NGOs, but several days ago, they were forced to leave Sudan. Darfur is still field of human disaster.

Some peace agreements between Sudan government and opposition forces in South and North of Sudan have been signed, but stability remains fragile. International communities are now under examination to chose justice or peace as priority.

The paradox is that big countries in UN Security Council such as America, China and Russia are among the countries that didn't sign Rome Treaty that set up the court. In fact, it is really difficult to avoid political intervention in law enforcement process. The countries with strong power often use double standard in dealing with international affairs especially those relate with instable countries.

Morocco Vs Iran: Cut The Relation

"The Kingdom of Morocco has decided to break its diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran beginning this Friday," Said Morocco's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

There are three reasons of the decision: First, the tension between the two countries after Morocco's solidarity to Bahrain that recently claimed by an adviser of Iran supreme leader as part of Iran. Second, support of Iran to Polysario that tried to separate from Morocco. Third, threat of spreading of Shia in Morocco that based regiously on sunni (malikian in fiqh).

Good Start

It is good start for united Palestine. Thirteen factions of Palestine--including Fatah and Hamas-- agree today in Cairo to form five committees to prepare united government, general election, united army forces, national reconciliation and reformation of PLO.

There is still long road to go. The success of this start much depends on support of arab countries and international communities. Palestine people in Gaza and West Bank no longer have choice but unity to face terrible situation that have been left by recent Israeli war on Gaza and success of hard line to form Goverment in Israel.

Names for Presidency of RI

Almost all Indonesian Medias these days talk about Mr. Jusuf Kalla, Vice President of Indonesia's readiness statement to race for president in next July general election in Indonesia. Political map immediately changed. It broke two strong blocks with two popular figures: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, incumbent president and Megawati Soekarnoputri, former president.

There are other names in the list: Prabowo Subianto, Rizal Ramli, Sultan Hamengkubuwono, Sutiyoso, etc. But those three names: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Jusuf Kalla are the strongest than the others.

Climate Cange: Radical Change on U.S. Policy

I remember how difficult U.S. representative was in saying 'yes' to Bali Road Map on Climate Change that issued in Bali of Indonesia, Dec, 2007. Now, as Obama Administration begins to work, clean energy becomes major issue in U.S. dealing with high cost fuel energy. Important amount of economic stimulus package that has been signed by President Obama will go to deal with clean energy and climate change issues.

There is no doubt that the impact of climate change affects our planet more serious than anytime before. While Victoria of Australia has been hitted by bushfire, flood attacked the other place of the country. London has lived the worst snow attacks in previous month. Our planet at whole is in serious impact of climate change.

I think that U.S. moving forward on climate change issues will be part of solution to the serious impact of climate change that we face. If all countries have same intention on the issue, our earth will be better place for all, now and in the future.

Back To The Track

U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton said that American national security based on three D: Defence, Diplomacy and Development.

She plays key role in two of them. Her first visit as Secretary of State to Asian Countries: Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and China will bring the two missions. The issues like American forces in Japan, economic recovery, developing stronger ties with Indonesia and North Korean nuclear program will be her talks with the officials in these countries.

I think U.S. is in serious efforts to back to the track in its foreign policies that has been worsen in recent eight years of Bush administration.

Let's Support Turkey

Turkey is now captivating millions of people around the world. Erdogan becomes a hero not only for Turks but also for Arab and Muslims. He represented, in his reaction to the emotional defence of Israeli President to the war on Gaza, rejection and condemnation of million of people around the world to the military action of Israeli forces in Gaza.

Now and in the future, Turkey will play more important role in the middle east. President of Palestine, Mahmud Abbas and President of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, visited Turkey and expressed their support to Turkey's role in supporting lasting peace in the region. Turkey also toke part as broker in indirect frezeed negotiation between Israel and Suriah.

Indeed, Middle East needs such brave and objective inisiator to promote peace in there.

Different Voices from Iraq and Afganistan

There were different voices in Iraq in one side and Afganistan in the other. Talking in Munich several days ago, President of Afganistan admitted that the situation in Afganistan after 7 years of what so called 'war against terrorism' is still terrible. He offered dialogue to Taliban. Yesterday, at least 20 people were killed in Taliban attack to the building of justice ministry.

Meanwhile, the situation in Iraq seems to be improved. Iraq Prime Minister, Nuri Al Maliki vocally asked US no to make so much intervention to entire Iraq affairs. The newest election in Iraq is also relatively carried out in condusive situation. If Iraq succeeded in building stable domocratic country, it will be good news of the region.

How much mideast need stable democratic countries in facing so many latent conflicts in the region.

More Difficult Chance to Peace

Right wing wins in Israeli election. Netanyahu can form goverment in coalition with other right parties: Israel Baiteinu and Shas Parties. Kadima in the center led by Livni also can for government only with coalition.

Right direction persicely means no peace seems to be acheived in near future.

On the other side, Hamas is actively moving to strengten ties with people and officials in Iran, Suriah, Sudan and other places. Khalid Meshal is warmly welcomed at every place he've visited.

It is really hard to imagine peace in such circumstance.

What a Paradox

It is the first time in American history; black president leads the U.S. Administration. President Obama not only welcomed by American people who voted him in the poll but also people around the world. It is amazing victory, amazing chance for hope and change.

But at same time, America faces one of the wosrt crisis in its history. Economy crisis is worse that it is predicted. Multi billion dollar of economy stimulus are now being debated in senate to bring U.S. exit from crisis.

It is no doubt that U.S will not be single player anymore in world affairs as the former US Presiden insisted to be in eight previous years.

Dateline Davos: Obama's World

It was a very interesting talk. Christiane Amanpour, CNN Chief of International Correspondent, hosted a panel debate in Davos, Switzerland, aired in CNN, Feb 2. The Panelists were Foreign Minister of France, Iraq, Iran, Prime Minister of Kenya, Defence Minister of Afganistan and Director of IAEA. They talked about world and international affairs after Obama toke office as President of USA.

Read full transcript of the talk here.

Uncompleted Approach

Talking in 45th Munich Security Conference, Vice President of America, Joe Biden emphazises that world has changed and therefore we also must change.

US administration wants to hear, talk and build a better and more secure world for all. He will talk with Iran and Russia; work seriously to achieve lasting peace between Palestine and Israel; and continue to support Afganistan and Iraq to be a stable country.

The message of the speech is clear. The right way to solve the conflict is by engaging all parts in the conflict in talk, not isolating them. Unfortunately, niether US or EU will talk with Hamas. It is very difficult to solve the Palestine-Israel conflict without talking with Hamas because Gaza is still under control of Hamas and other resistance forces there.

Uncared UN Resolution

The question now is how to implement UN resolution.

Israel pursued its military operation in Gaza. Hamas rejected to give up. Humanitarian crisis remains continue. Death toll has risen to 854 and more than 3,650 injured at the third week of the crisis.

President of Indonesia said that if the UN resolution did not stop Israeli attacks and force both sides to agree to a cease-fire, then a clear mechanism should be enforced to assert the resolution.

What clear mechanism is possible to force both side to end the war? UN may need to use multinational forces to guard peace in the region.

Who Can Stop Gaza Disaster?

At the 1st day of ground strike and 9th day of Israel assault to Gaza, 507 people died, among them 107 children and 36 women; and 2450 injured.

So far, UN failed to end the strike.

Demonstrations of millions of people take place everywhere around the world. They condemn Israel and urge immediate end of military operation.

Muslim Scholars led by Seikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi move to ask muslim countries leaders to use all tools to end the strike. Leader of Qatar call the operation as war crime and urge immediate summit of arab leaders.

The area is going to be wider war zone, if the military operation can't be ended. How much more will humanity pay the cost?

Good News on Indonesia's Democracy

Prof. Juan Cole pointed Indonesia's democracy as one of top 10 good news stories of muslim world in 2008.

He said: "Indonesia's transition to democracy that began in 1998 has been 'consolidated' and it has regained its economic health, paying back $43 billion in loans to the International Monetary Fund. Indonesia is the world fourth most populous country and the world's largest Muslim country, comprising something like 16 percent or more of all Muslims. It faces many challenges, as do all young democracies, but when 245 million Muslims have kept democracy going for 10 years, the thesis that Islam is somehow incompatible with democracy is clearly fallacious.".

Yes, Indonesia has been proving during these 10 years the compatibility of Islam with democracy. Indonesian diplomacy either in term of state or people has brought the bright model of muslim world that can uphold mutual and beneficial dialogue between cultures, religions and civilizations. There will be still long road to go, but this is good start to play more important role in international affairs. At least, Indonesia can take leading initiative in spreading democracy to the muslim world. And I think strong democracies in the world should support such efforts.

Feeling of Being Threatened

How do you feel when you are under threat? That is what Israel has felt since 1948. This feeling has been growing fast as the threat widened. Benny Morris described it very well.

Threat comes from Arab-Muslim communities that surround and never welcome Israel; Global opinion that condemns Israel's violation against human right; Hamas that on the ground controls Gaza strip and owns thousands of rockets, Hezbollah with stronger power after Israel attacks of 2006 to the south of Lebanon; Iran with potentially future nuclear weapon in hand and fast growing population of Arab-Israelian entire Israel.

How long can Israel live with feeling of being threatened? Not long, may be...